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請問閣下 對於以下 分段時間 有何見解 |
MML
註冊於: 05/04/2003
發帖數目: 5650
|  發表於: 2009-01-08 on 17:43
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On 2009-01-08 17:39, rodney wrote:
我都係抱住一個類似宗旨。如果可以唔努力工作都有回報, 好多人都做得到; 好多人都做得到嘅, 即係 average standard; average standard 用於賽馬, 就會响 around 本金 -17.5% 稅嘅邊緣浮沉。 ^_^
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你的對答和選馬都是一樣 : 一矢中的!!!
[/quote]
Haha, 自己係箭靶, 被人"一矢中的" ! 
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JimmyMa
註冊於: 29/09/2006
發帖數目: 5345
| 發表於: 2009-01-08 on 17:46
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On 2009-01-08 17:21, sxeditor wrote:
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On 2009-01-08 17:08, MML wrote:
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On 2009-01-08 12:32, sxeditor wrote:
mml兄，你咁夜重凍到震上網答人，真係馬中高手
想請教你，你賽前會否預測到這幾場賽事的步速是快定慢？或會跑出相約時間？
當然你會話那場有快馬列陣自然快步速，無放頭馬自然係慢步速，但真正賽事步速卻非有否放頭賽駒而產生必然的快慢步速？
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唔夜, 當時係我�H黃金工作時間。
RE: 賽前會否預測到這幾場賽事的步速?
昨晚我重點投注 R1 & R4。R4 測中 (所以有錢贏); R1 測錯 (所以"京城天寶"輸錢)。
跑馬係咁架啦, 長期預測�H命中率足以盈利的話, 此生意就 viable; 否則 ...
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多謝mml兄指教^_^
成功非僥倖，你做得到~~
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金兄, 我聽蘇民峰講過, 佢地䏲相估中6.7成, 就已經叫做準確架啦!
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bluechips
註冊於: 02/04/2006
發帖數目: 302 | 發表於: 2009-01-08 on 20:01
[/quote]
R285 �H Fr2, Fr1+2, Fr1+2+3 係近 7季�H 2nd slow.
RE: 場地問題? 馬匹問題? 騎師問題?
樣樣有 d啦, 見 R286 & R288 快開都扯唔快步速 & 總時間, 而且 last 謝哂, 應可斷定有場地因素。
慢放 就當然係馬匹 / 騎師因素。
印象中, 每季都有一晚這類全晚鬥慢賽事, 因為數據太少, 冇去考究。
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再次多謝 MML 兄解答.
Re: R1 (89-285)
昨晚我亦重點投注: "三刀王" 拖 "京城天寶" , "年年開心"
請問 MML兄對於 "京城天寶" 睇法.
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MML
註冊於: 05/04/2003
發帖數目: 5650
| 發表於: 2009-01-08 on 21:13
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On 2009-01-08 20:01, bluechips wrote:
請問 MML兄對於 "京城天寶" 睇法.
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"京城天寶", 剛巧賽前俾咗 d comments 給老友參考, 不妨 copy 出黎睇睇：
(至於昨晚一役嘅睇法, 未睇帶, 暫冇意見)
[....
R1 (Cl-5, HV-1650) : My choice : 京城天寶
Earlier when I recommended 皇仁俊駒, I referred to R166 (HV-1800) and said it was a misleading form. It’s because he was one of the pace victims. In that race, 京城天寶 was also a pace victim, He ran 1w just outside 皇仁俊駒 almost in the first 1200m. Even worse, he moved to 2w and accelerated at the final turn. Of course, he couldn’t sustain the speed in the home straight and lost. However, he defended 皇仁俊駒 which ran in box seat and which scored 2 places thereafter.
京城天寶 won like a super horse on soft track in Cl-5 (HV-1800) last season. This year, he finished 4th at HV-1650 (R015) in Cl-4. R015 (winner 京城之威) was of good standard with pace pattern favoured front-runners. 京城天寶 showed very good dash (L400 / 800 @ 23.07 / 47.69) and I ranked him the 3rd best horse in that Cl-4 race.
In race 1 tonight, I think 三刀王 (barrier 11) and 紫荊 (barrier 5) will try to take the lead. 光速, 榮利俱全 & 凱旋煌 (barrier 1, 2 & 4) will not let them go easily and strive for box seat or front-running position. As a result, 京城天寶 may run in the mid-field along the fence without difficulty. Provided that the pace is not dragged down in the midway, he should be able to challenge the leading pack in the straight. Anyway, 京城天寶 isn’t perfect. He often had bad start and isn’t consistent.....]
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JimmyMa
註冊於: 29/09/2006
發帖數目: 5345
| 發表於: 2009-01-08 on 21:34
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On 2009-01-08 21:13, MML wrote:
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On 2009-01-08 20:01, bluechips wrote:
請問 MML兄對於 "京城天寶" 睇法.
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"京城天寶", 剛巧賽前俾咗 d comments 給老友參考, 不妨 copy 出黎睇睇：
(至於昨晚一役嘅睇法, 未睇帶, 暫冇意見)
[....
R1 (Cl-5, HV-1650) : My choice : 京城天寶
Earlier when I recommended 皇仁俊駒, I referred to R166 (HV-1800) and said it was a misleading form. It’s because he was one of the pace victims. In that race, 京城天寶 was also a pace victim, He ran 1w just outside 皇仁俊駒 almost in the first 1200m. Even worse, he moved to 2w and accelerated at the final turn. Of course, he couldn’t sustain the speed in the home straight and lost. However, he defended 皇仁俊駒 which ran in box seat and which scored 2 places thereafter.
京城天寶 won like a super horse on soft track in Cl-5 (HV-1800) last season. This year, he finished 4th at HV-1650 (R015) in Cl-4. R015 (winner 京城之威) was of good standard with pace pattern favoured front-runners. 京城天寶 showed very good dash (L400 / 800 @ 23.07 / 47.69) and I ranked him the 3rd best horse in that Cl-4 race.
In race 1 tonight, I think 三刀王 (barrier 11) and 紫荊 (barrier 5) will try to take the lead. 光速, 榮利俱全 & 凱旋煌 (barrier 1, 2 & 4) will not let them go easily and strive for box seat or front-running position. As a result, 京城天寶 may run in the mid-field along the fence without difficulty. Provided that the pace is not dragged down in the midway, he should be able to challenge the leading pack in the straight. Anyway, 京城天寶 isn’t perfect. He often had bad start and isn’t consistent.....]
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真係各師各法, 派別𣎴同, 䏲嘅野都唔一樣. 而我賽前就同我啲馬友講隻京城天宝就完全唔駛買, 無謂揼錢落海, 理由就真係好簡單, 您揾隻大舊石在最後試跑曰(即星期1. 4)出草地跳而贏左嘅馬俾我䏲吓!
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MML
註冊於: 05/04/2003
發帖數目: 5650
| 發表於: 2009-01-08 on 22:48
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On 2009-01-08 21:34, JimmyMa wrote:
真係各師各法, 派別𣎴同, 䏲嘅野都唔一樣. 而我賽前就同我啲馬友講隻京城天宝就完全唔駛買, 無謂揼錢落海, 理由就真係好簡單, 您揾隻大舊石在最後試跑曰(即星期1. 4)出草地跳而贏左嘅馬俾我䏲吓!
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Yeah, 真係各 sze 各法！不過咁啱, 隻"京城天宝"上季嬴馬之前就出咗草地跳, 大舊石嘅其他馬我就唔啦。
講個真人真事故事, 話說前季有一陣子, 某練馬師話俾人捉到路, 佢親試嘅馬 = 搏殺馬, 其後我親口問過佢, 原來佢話只想運動吓, 揀 d乖嘅馬跳吓啫。 ^_^
我以前都有參考操練 pattern, 不過馬房工友經常叫我唔好, 因為操練因馬而異, 夏天冬天又唔同, 季初季尾又唔同, 局外人好難跟到。仲話現今馬房管理, 要 ever-ready, 譬如部署谷草, 想搏就抽衰檔, 唔想搏就抽好檔點算？ 有 form cycle 架嘛。
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JimmyMa
註冊於: 29/09/2006
發帖數目: 5345
| 發表於: 2009-01-08 on 23:03
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On 2009-01-08 22:48, MML wrote:
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On 2009-01-08 21:34, JimmyMa wrote:
真係各師各法, 派別𣎴同, 䏲嘅野都唔一樣. 而我賽前就同我啲馬友講隻京城天宝就完全唔駛買, 無謂揼錢落海, 理由就真係好簡單, 您揾隻大舊石在最後試跑曰(即星期1. 4)出草地跳而贏左嘅馬俾我䏲吓!
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Yeah, 真係各 sze 各法！不過咁啱, 隻"京城天宝"上季嬴馬之前就出咗草地跳, 大舊石嘅其他馬我就唔啦。
講個真人真事故事, 話說前季有一陣子, 某練馬師話俾人捉到路, 佢親試嘅馬 = 搏殺馬, 其後我親口問過佢, 原來佢話只想運動吓, 揀 d乖嘅馬跳吓啫。 ^_^
我以前都有參考操練 pattern, 不過馬房工友經常叫我唔好, 因為操練因馬而異, 夏天冬天又唔同, 季初季尾又唔同, 局外人好難跟到。仲話現今馬房管理, 要 ever-ready, 譬如部署谷草, 想搏就抽衰檔, 唔想搏就抽好檔點算？ 有 form cycle 架嘛。
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Haha! 手法係会變嘅, 今季又点同上季, 您剩係䏲華哥個馬房入面今季咪改到亂七八糟, 上季華哥咪揸兜, 今季咪唔同哂囉, 點可能揸住本天書䏲到老嫁.
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bluechips
註冊於: 02/04/2006
發帖數目: 302 | 發表於: 2009-01-08 on 23:11
感謝 MML兄, JimmyMa兄 之見解.
小弟對於 "京城天寶" 之愚見:
R285 : 極慢步速 F850 : 55.20 頭/尾馬 距離竟有 7.5 (一個專業騎師唔知有何對策?)
我覺得該場好有問題? (可能我思路有問題)
"京城天寶" R015 : L400-200 : 11.98 L200 :11.09 (23.07)
R285 : L400-200 : 12.07 L200 :10.90 (22.97)
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MML
註冊於: 05/04/2003
發帖數目: 5650
| 發表於: 2009-01-08 on 23:16
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On 2009-01-08 23:03, JimmyMa wrote:
Haha! 手法係会變嘅, 今季又点同上季, 您剩係䏲華哥個馬房入面今季咪改到亂七八糟, 上季華哥咪揸兜, 今季咪唔同哂囉, 點可能揸住本天書䏲到老嫁.
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That's it. You're right. ^_^
每個門派都有其長處, 最緊要肯投入, 自己知自己嘅位置及情況, 咁先至有得改善。
練馬師都一樣, 60歲都仲係要不斷學習。我知華哥有同外地練馬師交流心得, 互取其長。至於上季所謂揸兜, 留以有待啫, 大部分華人馬房都係形勢比人弱, d馬唔係用完就掉, 冇法啦。
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MML
註冊於: 05/04/2003
發帖數目: 5650
| 發表於: 2009-01-08 on 23:26
Quote:
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On 2009-01-08 23:11, bluechips wrote:
感謝 MML兄, JimmyMa兄 之見解.
小弟對於 "京城天寶" 之愚見:
R285 : 極慢步速 F850 : 55.20 頭/尾馬 距離竟有 7.5 (一個專業騎師唔知有何對策?)
我覺得該場好有問題? (可能我思路有問題)
"京城天寶" R015 : L400-200 : 11.98 L200 :11.09 (23.07)
R285 : L400-200 : 12.07 L200 :10.90 (22.97)
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RE: 一個專業騎師唔知有何對策?
轉彎前仲話搏撬位走, 萬一彎位仲响內欄, 應該已經盤算到絕望; 如果係質新馬, 直路試吓隻馬嘅 dash 留待日後參考; 如果隻馬已經跑到滑哂嘅, 揾個窿捐好過走光兼嘥力啦。
RE: R285
隻"榮利俱全"先至令人眼前一亮, 佢由入直路起, 一踩油就掟開咗隻"京城天寶"呀。
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