| Author |
賽馬小兒科 |
Shatin
註冊於: 20/09/2003
發帖數目: 228 |  發表於: 2009-05-20 on 23:08
年紀大，都已經唔係好記得點計數，即管試試。
總共買咗三注:
第一注中的機會 = 3/91
第一注唔中的機會 = 1-3/91
第一注唔中、第二注又唔中的機會 = (1-3/91)*(1-3/90)
第一注唔中、第二注唔中、第三注又唔中的機會 = (1-3/91)*(1-3/90)*(1-3/89) = 90.3%
即係話有90.3%三注完全唔中無錢收，換言之有錢收的機會係1-90.3% = 9.7%
基本上同就咁中單注機會 3.3% * 3 = 9.9% 差唔多。
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魔術師hkhorsetrack
註冊於: 21/09/2003
發帖數目: 3067
| 發表於: 2009-05-20 on 23:21
Shatin兄 個答案似似地  THANKS先
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bluechips
註冊於: 02/04/2006
發帖數目: 302 | 發表於: 2009-05-20 on 23:55
Quote:
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On 2009-05-20 23:08, Shatin wrote:
年紀大，都已經唔係好記得點計數，即管試試。
總共買咗三注:
第一注中的機會 = 3/91
第一注唔中的機會 = 1-3/91
第一注唔中、第二注又唔中的機會 = (1-3/91)*(1-3/90)
第一注唔中、第二注唔中、第三注又唔中的機會 = (1-3/91)*(1-3/90)*(1-3/89) = 90.3%
即係話有90.3%三注完全唔中無錢收，換言之有錢收的機會係1-90.3% = 9.7%
基本上同就咁中單注機會 3.3% * 3 = 9.9% 差唔多。
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Shatin兄,
小弟覺得有 D ?
如果1胆13腳"的Qp組合.....機會率有幾高呢
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Shatin
註冊於: 20/09/2003
發帖數目: 228 | 發表於: 2009-05-21 on 00:15
Quote:
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On 2009-05-20 23:55, bluechips wrote:
Shatin兄,
小弟覺得有 D ?
如果1胆13腳"的Qp組合.....機會率有幾高呢
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如果買13注，有錢收的機會係37.4%。
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pmengineers
註冊於: 23/11/2002
發帖數目: 1020
| 發表於: 2009-05-21 on 00:49
Quote:
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On 2009-05-21 00:15, Shatin wrote:
Quote:
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On 2009-05-20 23:55, bluechips wrote:
Shatin兄,
小弟覺得有 D ?
如果1胆13腳"的Qp組合.....機會率有幾高呢
|
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如果買13注，有錢收的機會係37.4%。
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If 1 banker + 13 legs in a 14 horses race, the chance to hit a rewardable Qp basically equals to the chance of the selected banker hitting a "place"because it becomes a must.
ie, 3/14 = 21.43%
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bluechips
註冊於: 02/04/2006
發帖數目: 302 | 發表於: 2009-05-21 on 00:58
Quote:
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On 2009-05-21 00:49, pmengineers wrote:
Quote:
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On 2009-05-21 00:15, Shatin wrote:
Quote:
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On 2009-05-20 23:55, bluechips wrote:
Shatin兄,
小弟覺得有 D ?
如果1胆13腳"的Qp組合.....機會率有幾高呢
|
|
如果買13注，有錢收的機會係37.4%。
|
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If 1 banker + 13 legs in a 14 horses race, the chance to hit a rewardable Qp basically equals to the chance of the selected banker hitting a "place"because it becomes a must.
ie, 3/14 = 21.43%
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終於出手啦!
Thanks !
3/14=21.43%
3/12=25 %
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pmengineers
註冊於: 23/11/2002
發帖數目: 1020
| 發表於: 2009-05-21 on 01:17
Let us concentrate on the chance of getting a payable "place" because it forms the essential element(s) of a payable Qp.
14 horses races
Bet on Qp= 1 banker + 3 legs
Assuming Qp 1>2,3,4
Place chance of banker #1 = 3/14
#1 dies, all die, no need to discuss further.
If #1 get the first "place" out the 3 "places",
there are 2 remaining "places" for the rest of the horses to compete.
The chance of 2nd place = 2/13
The chance of the 3rd place = 1/12
=============
The chance of the 1st payable Qp in the Qp (1>2,3,4) bet
= [3/14 x 2/13] x 3 bets = 9.89%
If 2 payable Qp is hit,
Chance of the 2nd Qp = [3/14 + 1/12] x 2 remaining bets = 3.57%
Overall Chance on the Qp (1>2,3,4) bet = 9.89% + 3.57% = 13.46%
Horsetrack, is this ok?
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MML
註冊於: 05/04/2003
發帖數目: 5650
| 發表於: 2009-05-21 on 01:55
Thx PM. 
Based on your calculations, what are the answers to the following scenarios?
(a) 1 banker + 12 legs
(b) 1 banker + 13 legs
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MML
註冊於: 05/04/2003
發帖數目: 5650
| 發表於: 2009-05-21 on 02:06
Quote:
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On 2009-05-21 01:55, MML wrote:
Thx PM.
Based on your calculations, what are the answers to the following scenarios?
(a) 1 banker + 12 legs
(b) 1 banker + 13 legs
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I am greedy. May I add one more scenario?
(c) 1 banker + 1 leg
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亂買sir (hinchung)hinchung
註冊於: 26/10/2005
發帖數目: 4079 | 發表於: 2009-05-21 on 02:35
睇到我頭暈，我只係教finance的...我唔識答...XDDD
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