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香港經典一哩賽~ 希望今年真係夠經典啦~ |
MML
註冊於: 05/04/2003
發帖數目: 5650
|  發表於: 2007-01-27 on 19:34
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On 2007-01-27 04:15, liup wrote:
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On 2007-01-27 00:25, MML wrote:
If you stop me from betting on the so-called false favourite(s) (W-odd below 4), I'd prefer to WATCH. ^_^
(P.S. Forget what I have said above if the top favourite goes to 開心. I will then go ahead to bet against it.) 
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So you mean any horse of W-odd below 4 in this race will finish before 開心 at the wire, don't you? What do think about WATCHWHATHAPPENS?
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起初以為只係假設性問題, 估唔到"開心"依加真係大熱門 ...... 呢次騎虎難下添, 點算！
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MML
註冊於: 05/04/2003
發帖數目: 5650
| 發表於: 2007-01-27 on 19:36
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On 2007-01-27 19:34, MML wrote:
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On 2007-01-27 04:15, liup wrote:
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On 2007-01-27 00:25, MML wrote:
If you stop me from betting on the so-called false favourite(s) (W-odd below 4), I'd prefer to WATCH. ^_^
(P.S. Forget what I have said above if the top favourite goes to 開心. I will then go ahead to bet against it.)
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So you mean any horse of W-odd below 4 in this race will finish before 開心 at the wire, don't you? What do think about WATCHWHATHAPPENS?
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起初以為只係假設性問題, 估唔到"開心"依加真係大熱門 ...... 呢次騎虎難下添, 點算！
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"爆炸"都第3 熱門 .....
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Shatin
註冊於: 20/09/2003
發帖數目: 228 | 發表於: 2007-01-27 on 19:49
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On 2007-01-27 19:34, MML wrote:
起初以為只係假設性問題, 估唔到"開心"依加真係大熱門 ...... 呢次騎虎難下添, 點算！
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Stick with Plan A, of course!
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MML
註冊於: 05/04/2003
發帖數目: 5650
| 發表於: 2007-01-27 on 22:45
[quote]
On 2007-01-27 04:15, liup wrote:
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....
So you mean any horse of W-odd below 4 in this race will finish before 開心 at the wire, don't you? What do think about WATCHWHATHAPPENS?
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Sorry that I've almost missed this post.
開心's performance in the last 2 runs was good. However, I think any of #1 to #5 in this race can perform equally well (or even better) under the same conditions, if they face the same lot of contenders such as 再戰群雄, 將軍, 陽光 etc. To run at a fresh distance of 1600m in a scratch top Cl-1 race, a good price (preferably of no less than that of #1 to 5) should be pre-requisite.
WATCHWHATHAPPENS 奇異福星 ...
May I just extract my VF notes for your reference :
"7/1/2007, R2006-293, ST-1400
步速分析 : Fr2 偏快 (21.6) made pace >ave(58.7), L23.4 & time 1.22.1 OK
步速+場地特色 : 公平, 放頭稍不利; @200 群駒在 4L內 (@400 ~5.5L內)
走位形勢 : 13th (6.75L) - 13th (8.5L) - 10th (3.75L) (1w - 0w 出彎 0w)
出閘：14 檔, 留至尾切欄, then 順住涉上前~2L (前速應不差)
直路跑線 : 沿欄上
直路 : (直路前稍搶口, 步姿仍生硬); 直路 ~330 & 210 被壓稍收慢; then 只推至 50在 #13後中力 (200前看似必可過"創佳績", 但 180-80 又看似未必, 衝速稍減?)
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liup
註冊於: 13/09/2003
發帖數目: 2628 | 發表於: 2007-01-28 on 01:55
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On 2007-01-27 22:45, MML wrote:
...
WATCHWHATHAPPENS 奇異福星 ...
May I just extract my VF notes for your reference :
"7/1/2007, R2006-293, ST-1400
步速分析 : Fr2 偏快 (21.6) made pace >ave(58.7), L23.4 & time 1.22.1 OK
步速+場地特色 : 公平, 放頭稍不利; @200 群駒在 4L內 (@400 ~5.5L內)
走位形勢 : 13th (6.75L) - 13th (8.5L) - 10th (3.75L) (1w - 0w 出彎 0w)
出閘：14 檔, 留至尾切欄, then 順住涉上前~2L (前速應不差)
直路跑線 : 沿欄上
直路 : (直路前稍搶口, 步姿仍生硬); 直路 ~330 & 210 被壓稍收慢; then 只推至 50在 #13後中力 (200前看似必可過"創佳績", 但 180-80 又看似未必, 衝速稍減?)
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Thanks for your professional VF notes!
Basing on your comments and the unfavorable rating factor, it looks like WATCHWHATHAPPENS 奇異福星 would not have any place chance at all. 
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