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07-08年度個人實力挑戰賽★★★
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Hong Kong Horse Database Forum Index >> 07-08年度個人實力挑戰賽★★★ >> [liup] 07-08 年度個人實力挑戰賽
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Author [liup] 07-08 年度個人實力挑戰賽
liup









註冊於: 13/09/2003
發帖數目: 2628
發表於: 2008-04-27 on 16:22
Opening Balance $2549
R8 連贏 @$1270
1 爆冷

3 雕塑家 4 佳駿龍
Balance $9








  Profiles of liup   
有規有舉,向着標竿直跑!gogohorse









註冊於: 25/11/2004
發帖數目: 425
發表於: 2008-04-27 on 16:40
Quote:

On 2008-04-27 16:22, liup wrote:
Opening Balance $2549
R8 連贏 @$1270
1 爆冷

3 雕塑家 4 佳駿龍
Balance $9


辜負獲利隻雕塑家:
4236 27-APR-2008
16:31 沙田
星期日 位置Q 8 場 3 雕塑家 拖 4 佳駿龍 +
10 牛精財星 $100

$200.00
4239 27-APR-2008
16:33 沙田
星期日 連贏 8 場 1 爆冷 + 3 雕塑家 $50

$50.00
4242 27-APR-2008
16:35 沙田
星期日 連贏 8 場 3 雕塑家 拖 4 佳駿龍 +
7 喜蓮福星 + 8 精靈爵士 +
12 音樂感 $30

$120.00


  Profiles of gogohorse   
liup









註冊於: 13/09/2003
發帖數目: 2628
發表於: 2008-04-27 on 16:42
Quote:

On 2008-04-27 16:22, liup wrote:
Opening Balance $2549
R8 連贏 @$1270
1 爆冷

3 雕塑家 4 佳駿龍
Balance $9


「爆冷」咁都保唔住個第二, 注定要出局。


  Profiles of liup   
pmengineers









註冊於: 23/11/2002
發帖數目: 1020
Hong Kong
發表於: 2008-04-27 on 17:45
Using simple strategy, bet all 6 foreign horses .... My first time won Q @ 320 賠



  Profiles of pmengineers   
MML









註冊於: 05/04/2003
發帖數目: 5650
HK
發表於: 2008-04-27 on 18:10
Quote:

On 2008-04-27 17:45, pmengineers wrote:
Using simple strategy, bet all 6 foreign horses .... My first time won Q @ 320 賠




Congratulations, PM. ^_^


  Profiles of MML   
liup









註冊於: 13/09/2003
發帖數目: 2628
發表於: 2008-04-27 on 18:15
Quote:

On 2008-04-27 17:45, pmengineers wrote:
Using simple strategy, bet all 6 foreign horses .... My first time won Q @ 320 賠




恭喜~~
咁買法, 唔驚d祖國"怒青"話你唔愛國咩?


  Profiles of liup   
pmengineers









註冊於: 23/11/2002
發帖數目: 1020
Hong Kong
發表於: 2008-04-27 on 18:38
Quote:

On 2008-04-27 18:15, liup wrote:
咁買法, 唔驚d祖國"怒青"話你唔愛國咩?



Liup,

When doing the betting and/or business, in particular the money within your pocket, there is no need to bear the burden of 愛國 as well as it's associates (those 糞怒青)...

Pros & cons appeared in both the local and foreign horses in this race, I therefore assumed they were having equal standard/capacity before the race, ie, each of them is able to beat the others and win or Q ...

With the overbet on the locals, and underbet on the foreigns, I therefore simply used a simple strategy and let the foriegns, if capble, made their way to beat and to reward me.


  Profiles of pmengineers   
liup









註冊於: 13/09/2003
發帖數目: 2628
發表於: 2008-04-28 on 06:09
Quote:

On 2008-04-27 18:38, pmengineers wrote:
...
With the overbet on the locals, and underbet on the foreigns, I therefore simply used a simple strategy and let the foriegns, if capble, made their way to beat and to reward me.


PM,
What a smart betting strategy! I can't agree to you more. Hope the ladies will also share your view that the "foreigns" are always over-priced while they're shopping branded purses.

This strategy sounds familiar to me too. I did apply a similar approach to the Hong Kong Cup's invitational races in early 90s and hit several long priced WQs, including 羅曼尼+法眼(1993) and 塔傑邦+帝河(1994).

好爸爸 captured the HK Champions Mile and became the first horse to qualify for the Breeders' Cup Mile. Here comes a question for me. Should I consider it as a foreign or a local contender if it takes part in the race later in this year at Santa Anita Oak?


  Profiles of liup   
liup









註冊於: 13/09/2003
發帖數目: 2628
發表於: 2008-04-28 on 12:03
Quote:

On 2008-04-27 15:05, hkhorsecharity wrote:
..
睇下隻雞跑成點。重槌$10Win去盡


又學下人玩數據, 大摩今季出賽馬匹
win賠率 20-30倍: 勝出率 = 0/39 = 0 %
win賠率 20倍或以上: 勝出率 = 1/139 = 0.78%
大摩功力深厚, 搏佢爆呔, 好高難度


  Profiles of liup   
liup









註冊於: 13/09/2003
發帖數目: 2628
發表於: 2008-04-28 on 14:37
Quote:

On 2008-04-26 18:17, MML wrote:
...R6 will likely be of strong pace. Perhaps those seeking cover in the mid-field may be benefited.


Brother MML, this is not the case. ^_^

Is it too optimistic to spot 常山鳳寶 in the mid-pack with cover from draw #11? As expected it was held up and dropped at the very last. As observed from the video form of its first 7 career starts in UK, this is the most unfavorable scenario for this presser (or early presser) that happened once at its debut on 08/06/07 which was its one and only one unplaced finish.
Comments on Running
15/09/07 - tracked leaders, switched left and good headway well over 1f out, ridden to lead entering final furlong, soon driven, headed and no extra last 75yds
08/09/07 - held up, ridden and headway over 1f out, ran on and edged left inside final furlong, not reach winner
...
...
...
09/07/07 - raced stands' side, chased leaders, led that group 1f out but 3rd overall, edged left and one pace inside final furlong
08/06/07 - started slowly, ran green in rear, taken to outer and progress well over 1f out, kept on steadily final furlong


  Profiles of liup   
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